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RE: [cdn-nucl-l] Climate Change Swindle video panned
Jim,
I like your statement "will give you a better basis for deciding where the
scientific truth lies". Our judicial systems realized long ago that they
can only work when based on the premise of the "whole" truth. We must take
the same approach. And some of these truths may, in fact, be inconvenient
(that wasn't a shot), depending on our own personal leanings. We owe it to
ourselves, again no matter what our feelings are, to not dismiss these out
of hand. And in spite of being raised Catholic, I don't believe that we
have yet reached the point where there are many truths that we can take as
being "absolute"...
Just a small typo... It's www.realclimate.org
Cheers,
Andy
-----Original Message-----
From: cdn-nucl-l-admin@mailman1.cis.McMaster.CA
[mailto:cdn-nucl-l-admin@mailman1.cis.McMaster.CA] On Behalf Of Dukelow,
James S Jr
Sent: 29 March 2007 1:41 PM
To: Whitlock, Jeremy; Cdn-Nucl-LISTSERV (E-mail)
Subject: RE: [cdn-nucl-l] Climate Change Swindle video panned
Jeremy Whitlock wrote:
-----Original Message-----
From: cdn-nucl-l-admin@mailman1.cis.McMaster.CA on behalf of Whitlock,
Jeremy
Sent: Wed 3/28/2007 10:07 PM
To: Cdn-Nucl-LISTSERV (E-mail)
Subject: RE: [cdn-nucl-l] Climate Change Swindle video panned
Jim writes:
> The best available estimates of temperatures 1000 years ago is the
> Mann et al. compilation of a variety of temperature proxies from
> around the world -- the famous "hockey stick".
Jim, I wouldn't exactly call Mann's hockey stick the "best available" -- to
do that ignores the serious statistical errors that have been found in
attempts to replicate his result, including the well-known work by Canadian
scientists Steve McIntyre and Ross McKitrick.
See, for example, McKitrick's page at:
www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/trc.html
and the Nat Post commentary at:
www.canada.com/nationalpost/story.html?id=22003a0d-37cc-4399-8bcc-39cd20bed2
f6&k=0
There is also an interesting discussion of alternative temperature proxies
and the background of the hockey stick phenom at
www.john-daly.com/hockey/hockey.htm
Regards,
Jeremy.
=======================
I have some prior (prior to their well-known work) experience with McKitrick
and was not very impressed. You might visit a non-right-wing source of
information, the climate blog, RealClimate, at www.realclimated.org , and
do a search on McKitrick. One of the things you will find is a discussion
of the impact on their results of the well-known McK-McI degrees-radians
error.
More personally, McKitrick scolded me, justifiably, about 10 years ago for
not knowing and accounting for the impact on confidence intervals of time
series regressions of autocorrelation in the series. The McK-McI well-known
criticism of Mann et al. makes the same mistake with temporal and spatial
autocorrelation, but Ross McKitrick can't claim to be unaware of the need to
compensate for the auto- and spatial correlations in the data.
More generally, if all you read is the "right" side of the argument,
Lindzen, Spencer, Christy, Michaels, the Idsos, John Daly, Soon, Baliunas,
the Robinsons, about a dozen others, the Wall Street Journal, the National
Post, the Times of London, and FoxNews, you'll not find anything to
challenge you disbelief in anthropogenic global warming. Reading the IPCC
reports (particularly the Technical Summaries, available online), Spencer
Weart's The Discovery of Global Warming (a book by Harvard Press, available
in an expanded form online), RealClimate (available online and real-time),
and the many recent National Academy of Science reports (all of them
available online, including one on the hockey stick) will give you a better
basis for deciding where the scientific truth lies.
Best regards.
Jim Dukelow
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Richland, WA
jim.dukelow@pnl.gov
These comments are mine and have not been reviewed and/or approved by my
management or by the U.S. Department of Energy.
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