RE: [cdn-nucl-l] Ontario to build reactors

["Adam Mclean" <adam.mclean@utoronto.ca>]

Hi Andy, Paul,

As far as I understand, the $40 billion figure is the non-present value for
construction/refurb (capital costs only) of 15,900 MW (making up 38% of
installed capacity in 2025, 44% of 'effective' capacity, producing ~60% of
the total energy produced) of nuclear at an assumed ~$2,500/kW installed
(which would be an average of new construction + refurbs, where the refurb
value is based on the cost of the Bruce A refurb, $4.5 billion for 2X900MW
units).  In the OPA report, this is scenario is called portfolio '2A',
which, note, contains the highest amount of nuclear of all 10 portfolios
studied, and which is not the portfolio which the OPA recommended in the
final summary - that is 1A, which includes 12,500 MW of new/refurb nuclear
at a capital cost of $29.6 billion non-present value.

In other words, the $40 billion figure is simply the largest number in the
OPA report with the label 'nuclear' beside it.

Note that portfolio 1A also includes (all capital cost, non present value)
$10.3 billion for gas, $22.3 billion for renewables, and $5.1 billion for
CDM (conservation and demand-side management) which no one seems to talk
about...

Note also that in present value $billions for portfolio 1A, nuclear is
$17.5, renewables is $13.9, gas is $7.5, and CDM is $3.3.

Note also that the present value of the total cash flow over the next 20
years for portfolio 1A is ~$160 billion, made up mostly from the cost of
natural gas feeding 12,500 MW of new CCNG plants also in the plan...

I'm not sure if the OPA report is still available online - if not, I'm happy
to send the pertinent parts (including all the figures above) along - just
send me an email.

Adam


-----Original Message-----
From: cdn-nucl-l-admin@mailman1.cis.McMaster.CA
[mailto:cdn-nucl-l-admin@mailman1.cis.McMaster.CA] On Behalf Of Andy
Sent: Tuesday, June 13, 2006 8:13 AM
To: Adam Mclean; Canadian Nuclear Discussion List
Subject: Re: [cdn-nucl-l] Ontario to build reactors

>
> Last December, the OPA, an arm's length agency, recommended in its
1,100-page report that Ontario spend up to $40 billion over the next 20
years to produce 12,400 megawatts of electricity from new or refurbished
nuclear plants.
>

40B for 12,500 MW seems excessive.  I thought a CANDU 900 was around 1.3B,
which would make the total cost in the order of 18B.  Are my numbers out by
that much?


Andy

_______________________________________________
cdn-nucl-l mailing list
cdn-nucl-l@mailman.McMaster.CA
http://mailman.McMaster.CA/mailman/listinfo/cdn-nucl-l