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[cdn-nucl-l] OPA Supply mix advice
What did everyone think about the OPA report released today?
I have only read the summary but here are some thoughts.
Nuclear will retain 50% of the SUPPLY of electricity in Ontario. Combined with old plant shutdows and load growth this amounts to around 4000 MW of new build nuclear by 2025. So around 7 CANDU 6's or around 5 CANDU 9's. Assuming CANDU, of course....there is still talk of an EPR. I have not heard AP-1000 or ABWR in contention...have you?
I was a bit surprised at the natural gas forcast although given the loud voice of the OCAA I shouldn't have been. Remember that 1/2 to 2/3 of coal plant CO2 emissions (depending on combined cycle or not) are emitted from NG.
Not to mention I heard on the radio this morning (MIX 99.9 TO) that NG futures have risen 10% this WEEK.
Renewables play a significant role in the report although it is important to note that this category includes large scale hydroelectric. One interesting thing I noticed was that in 2005 the % capacity of renewables is LESS than the % supplied yet in 2025 there is a 6% surplus in % supplied vs % capacity. Where is this gain in reliability going to come from?? Obviously this MUST be considering imports of hydro from manitoba and Quebec as the major source of renewable energy. (Consider the Pikcering wind turbine which operates at < 18% capacity factor).
I was glad to see conservation play a prominent role since I am an avid conserver...however the range predicted is very large 1800-4300 MW. Luckily they assumed the lower number whenh projecting the supply. I still think this is optimistic...people still drive SUVs and they still crank the AC...society at large is not ready to be a
Well that's my 2 cents for now...I've got to finish a UNENE assignment for that slave driver Professor BR
Of course I'm only kidding :-)
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