[cdn-nucl-l] Re: cdn-nucl-l digest, Vol 1 #1526 - 3 msgs

["Leo M. Lowe" <llowe@senes.ca>]

At 12:01 PM 11/11/2004 -0500, you wrote:
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>This is a digest version of the
>Canadian Nuclear Discussion List
>_______________________________________________
>
>Today's Topics:
>
>    1. Nuclear Revolution - in the making (Jerry Cuttler)
>    2. new hydro (Jaro)
>    3. " Fast work averted propane disaster " (Jaro)
>
>--__--__--
>
>Message: 1
>Reply-To: "Jerry Cuttler" <jerrycuttler@rogers.com>
>From: "Jerry Cuttler" <jerrycuttler@rogers.com>
>To: "cdn-nucl-l" <cdn-nucl-l@mailman1.cis.mcmaster.ca>
>Date: Wed, 10 Nov 2004 19:41:17 -0500
>Subject: [cdn-nucl-l] Nuclear Revolution - in the making
>
>Viva la revolution! but it sure is slow in coming ...
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: Gene
>To: mbrexchange@list.ans.org
>Sent: Thursday, November 04, 2004 5:50 PM
>Subject: [MbrExchange] EnLG 2004nov4 Nuclear Revolution - in the making
>
>Investment Indicators from Peter George
>Nuclear Revolution - in the making
>Peter George November 4, 2004
>http://www.321gold.com/editorials/george/george110404.html
>
>"Do not conform any longer to the pattern of this world, But be transformed
>by the renewing of your mind." -Romans chapter 12, verse 2
>
>SUMMARY
>Gold Bugs are used to a world of conspiracy - banks and governments fighting
>to deflect the relentless forces of speculators and the market. Despite
>feeling at home in such an environment, the writer was surprised at the web
>of intrigue and confused emotions battling for supremacy in the field of
>nuclear science, some determined to damn its role in the field of energy.
>Even today, when the man in the street confronts the concept of 'atomic
>power,' he often thinks first of bombs and radiation. He can largely thank
>the 'Greens' and their political cousins in the 'Anti-War Brigade' for most
>of these distorted perceptions. In a fit of blind zeal the 'Greens' were set
>to ditch baby and bath water both. It was not always that way.
>
>By the end of the seventies the nuclear option was gaining ground
>everywhere. The US had 100 Nuclear reactors in operation, 20 under
>construction and 100 more planned. The world had successfully constructed
>over 400 in total: then came 'Three Mile Island" (1979) and Chernobyl
>(1986). Most of the US '20' were halted. Those on the drawing board got
>cancelled. TMI was an American phenomenon. The world largely ignored it and
>waited for Chernobyl. The 'Greens' and their 'fellow-travelers' blew a minor
>glitch at TMI out of all proportion. Later, they and others totally
>misrepresented the true extent of 'fall-out' from Chernobyl (1986). On the
>back of both they sowed a wind of invective against anything nuclear which
>succeeded in gutting it as an energy source for the next quarter century.
>The process was aided and abetted by a 20-year downtrend in oil and
>commodity prices. This helped defer decisions by skewing the economic risk
>from nuclear, to less complicated fossil fuels like oil, coal and more
>recently, liquid natural gas.
>
>A quarter century later, thanks to the misguided efforts of the 'Greens,'
>the world looks set to reap a double whirlwind - a crisis in oil and gas
>supplies, coupled with a menace in 'global warming.' The former could see
>oil prices spike ten-fold in a decade. The latter could spawn increasingly
>nasty side-effects, ranging from 'acid rain' and radically changing weather
>patterns, to melting perma-frost and sharply rising sea levels. If at some
>point in the future every identifiable 'Green' is punched black and blue by
>an angry world, it would be no more than their just deserts. They have been
>fighting the wrong war. Well-known 'Green' James Lovelock, of Mother Earth
>'Gaia' fame, has repented. We discuss his views below.
>
>Professor John McCarthy, ex-Director of 'Artificial Intelligence Research'
>at Stanford, spent much of his life studying the modes of reasoning required
>for intelligent behaviour. He summed up political opposition to nuclear as
>follows:
>
>"The counterculture generation is passing through the peak of its political
>powernext generations seem to be more RATIONAL about nuclear energy and many
>other issues. Therefore the US is likely to resume building reactors before
>being driven to it by other countries getting economic advantages."
>
>When politics and phobias fight markets, markets invariably win. The
>two-edged crisis in oil and energy will resolve itself in similar fashion.
>The market will determine our choices. First there's not enough
>easily-accessible oil and gas. Second, what's left is destroying our planet.
>Few will take heed of the damage until dollars and cents combine with the
>effects of global warming to give us all a fright.
>
>When the US was confronted in March 2001, with international pressure to
>comply with the requirements of the Kyoto Treaty, rolling back consumption
>of carbonaceous fuels like oil, coal, and gas, to combat the 'Greenhouse'
>effects of global warming, Bush was blunt in his refusal to give a blank
>cheque promise of compliance:
>
>"We'll be working with our allies to reduce greenhouse gasses. But I will
>not accept a plan that will harm our economy and hurt American workers."
>
>Drawn up in Kyoto, Japan, in 1997, the accord initially called for
>industrialized nations to cut greenhouse emissions 8% below 1990 levels, but
>gave them 'til 2012 to reach respective targets. To become effective the
>agreement required ratification by countries responsible for at least 55% of
>carbon emissions in 1990. The US was then producing 36% of the total, but
>with only 6% of total population, making it far and away the biggest
>polluter. US rejection was a real setback but Bush did not act in isolation.
>Two years earlier the Senate had voted unanimously, by 95-0, to reject Kyoto
>unless China and other rapidly developing countries were also required to
>join. Despite current protestations to the contrary, Senators Kerry and
>Kennedy both voted WITH the majority, and AGAINST Kyoto!
>
>Fast forward to 2004 and China has leapt up the rankings to become the
>world's second biggest consumer of oil. In the medium term their demand
>could double again so, in retrospect, the US was entitled to dig in its
>heels until compliance with Kyoto became more widespread.
>
>Today the Bush plan to fight greenhouse gasses calls for investment in
>Hydrogen and other alternative sources of energy, together with financial
>incentives to encourage their use. But hydrogen is not in itself an 'energy
>source.' Furthermore, it can only be produced economically - and in the
>spirit of Kyoto - as a by-product of nuclear power. There is no point in
>burning oil, coal or gas, to generate hydrogen.
>
>In pursuance of their revised strategy, the US Department of Energy a year
>ago commissioned a study by the University of Chicago to investigate the
>economic factors affecting the future of nuclear power. That report was only
>completed in August 2004. It made ultra low projections about the likely
>future course of oil and gas prices, totally ignoring the theory of 'PEAK
>OIL' discussed in this report. Conversely, it made quite high estimates for
>long term interest rates, and required returns on equity. Both decisions
>selectively disadvantaged the capital intensive nature of nuclear reactors.
>Despite these distortions, the study fully assured the competitiveness of
>nuclear power.
>
>CONCLUSION
>The above summary is designed to demonstrate a principle. If market forces
>require it, then 'Greens' or 'no Greens,' nuclear will return to fashion.
>The appointed time for its restoration is close. We intend to demonstrate
>why the case is far more compelling than the tame conclusions of the Chicago
>report would indicate. Those who position investments appropriately can make
>excellent profits as events unfold, both in the short term and the long,
>depending on the sector. As with all markets, they discount the future. For
>major new producers of Uranium and certain leading edge technologies in the
>field of Reactor Design, the rewards could be exciting. We briefly mention
>our top two recommendations below, but they are discussed in greater detail
>in the body of the report. In the case of Uranium, the short-term outlook is
>very strong. Not only is underlying demand set to ratchet up sharply in the
>years ahead, but stockpiles of highly-enriched weapons-grade uranium - and
>other non-mined sources - are depleting fast. Simply to close the current
>gap, production will need to double in the short term from 85m lbs a year to
>170m. If the oil crisis worsens, nuclear will be the main beneficiary. If
>'Greenhouse' fears mount, nuclear is the only realistic way out.
>
>Once the world's brightest and best are let off the leash and enticed to
>re-enter the world of nuclear research, plants will get simpler, design
>margins safer, fuel enrichment cheaper, licensing quicker and construction
>times shorter.
>
>In 1979, following the shock of Three Mile Island, uranium prices peaked at
>$43 a lb. In the absence of this extraneous event, uranium may well have
>continued to rise in step with other commodities, peaking a year later at
>$50 a lb. That would have coincided with Brent oil notching its then
>all-time high of $40 a barrel, and gold a record of $850 an ounce.
>
>Twenty four years down the track, Brent leads the pack. The price has
>surpassed its previous high. At time of writing it had breached the $50
>level for the first time ever. Our initial short-term 'point and figure'
>target is $54. Nymex 'Light Sweet Crude' is there already. (NYMEX is short
>for New York Metal Exchange).
>
>Some commentators predict Brent could reach $60 in 9 months and $80 in 24
>months. No doubt there will be the odd gut-wrenching correction on the way -
>as we saw in copper recently - but the trend will remain intact.
>
>In response to these multiple pressures, the uranium price will undoubtedly
>play catch-up. Within 24 months it could equal and surpass oil. Longer term
>both can DOUBLE - $100 a barrel for oil and possibly $125/lb for uranium.
>Only then would they be back to where oil was in REAL terms in 1980 and
>where uranium might have been were it not for Three Mile Island. The
>short-term logic in favour of selecting uranium stocks as top pick in the
>energy sector, is therefore overwhelming. The metal starts from a much lower
>base than oil - being $20 /lb instead of Brent's $50 a barrel - yet on past
>performance the two should at least rank pari passu.
>
>If a cascade of bursting debt bubbles causes the dollar to tank 50% over the
>remainder of the decade, nominal dollar values for oil and uranium could
>conceivably even RE-DOUBLE. (The 50% figure was a forecast made by The
>Economist scarcely a year ago. It is no more than the strict measure
>required to restore the US trade deficit back to surplus - currently running
>over 5,6% of GDP).
>
>TWO SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS  ((( # 2 Is Pebble Bed Reactor))))
>Based on the above summary and conclusion, we have two specific investment
>recommendations to make. Clearly no action should be taken until you have
>passed them across the desk of your personal investment advisor, for a
>careful 'yea' or a 'nay.'
>
>1. AFLEASE - Gold and Uranium Producer of Promise
>The first is a simple gold/uranium play, but with the emphasis on uranium.
>As a South African, the writer spent part of his career in finance as a
>stockbroker in Johannesburg, the other as a bond trader in Cape Town. But
>his most exciting four year stint took place in between the two moves, from
>1983 to 1987, whilst Executive Chairman of junior gold miner Wit Nigel.
>
>Half way through the writer's stormy tenure as Chairman, the company made a
>public offer for a minimum 25% stake in a gold-uranium producer called
>AFLEASE, then controlled 65% by Anglo's Vaal Reefs gold mine. Today that
>company, with a much-expanded capital base, sits on a uranium resource
>estimated by Anglo to amount to 330m lbs. That would make it approximately
>60% the size of Canadian heavyweight CAMECO. AFLEASE also has two small, but
>proven shallow gold reserves - and a potentially much larger gold resource
>which has yet to be properly drilled but could ultimately contain in excess
>of 10m ounces of gold. A 'reserve' is a deposit which has been properly
>established. A resource is far less certain.
>
>In total Aflease controls approximately 60% of South Africa's easily-
>available uranium. Grades should initially average close to 1kg a ton (2,2
>lbs). A third of projected uranium revenue will come from gold which
>co-exists in the same deposit, at an average recovered grade of 1gm/ton.
>Much of the resource lies at or close to surface. The other three gold
>deposits are quite separate and have nothing to do with the above gold as a
>by-product of uranium.
>
>The company recently raised R200m ($33m) via a share swap with Randgold &
>Exploration. A portion of the funds will be used to complete a
>'pre-feasibility study' of the uranium deposit. It should take 6-9 months
>from start to finish. In the late 70's and early 80's the giant Anglo
>American Corporation sank 240 boreholes on the uranium prospect. These
>ranged from surface down to 2000 meters. To put it bluntly, the deposit has
>been drilled as thoroughly as a Swiss 'Emmentaler' cheese.
>
>Seventy of the cores are still available for re-assaying to enable the
>information to become SAMREC compliant. In the old days of South African
>mining, exploration of the 'Main Gold Reef' - or even the 'Merensky'
>Platinum reef - was relatively predictable. Less than a dozen good borehole
>results were all one needed to prove up a viable mine because it was simply
>an 'extension' of an existing reef. Imagine having 240 drill holes in a
>single large deposit! All thanks to Anglo thoroughness.
>
>Subject to the pre-feasibility study producing no unpleasant surprises, the
>company will approach one of a handful of potential customers with a view to
>establishing an initial mega mine capable of producing up to 6m lbs a year.
>2m would come from a 'soft start' short-term opencast proposition, taking a
>year or so at most to bring on stream. The mega mine would take four years
>to establish and would have a minimum 25-year life.
>
>Most of the initial finance for the above mine would come from the customer.
>Mining and treatment costs are expected to average less than $15/lb. If the
>uranium price is trading over $30/lb by August next year - currently
>$20/lb - we have a very sound proposition on our hands. If the spot price
>hits our more realistic target of $45/lb, we have ourselves a veritable
>humdinger of a project - despite our long-term bullish projections for the
>Rand, currently trading above R6/$.
>
>We enclose a far more detailed analysis in the main body of this report, but
>it is only available to SUBSCRIBERS. The Company's CEO is currently on an
>overseas 'roadshow,' visiting potential investors in the UK, Switzerland,
>Canada, the US, and Japan. Japanese gold group Jipangu already holds 20m
>shares and has recently appointed a second director to the Board.
>
>In the long term, should the pre-feasibility pan out as hoped, and should
>the market warrant, AFLEASE could one day open THREE mega mines producing a
>total of 12m lbs a year. This would place them in the same league as CAMECO
>with their current production of 20m. Although AFLEASE has nowhere near the
>high grades of CAMECO, it will operate in a far kinder environment. When
>account is taken of its by-product revenue from gold, the company will enjoy
>surprisingly low costs in relation to it's the price of uranium.
>
>The company has a present issued capital of less than 325million shares. The
>ruling price at time of writing was R2,10/share equivalent to US 35cents. We
>believe that at around R2,50 ( US 40cents) - it would be possible to pick up
>between 20m and 30m shares in sizeable blocks. The total investment would
>amount to less than $15m. Should any of our readers be interested, they may
>contact us via our web site, www.investmentindicators.com.
>
>On July 27 of this year, we recommended the stock at R1, (US 16 cents) in a
>special report entitled: ENERGY UNLIMITED - AFLEASE and URANIUM. It has
>since doubled off a low base. We believe that by July of next year, with the
>'pre-feasibility' complete and uranium at $30, the shares could be trading
>at R7 ($1,16). By the end of next year, 14 months down the line, with spot
>uranium probably up at $45/lb and gold at $600 an ounce, these shares could
>well be trading between five and six times current levels. That would put
>them between R10 and R12/share, equivalent to US $1,80 each.
>
>2. SOUTH AFRICA'S 'REVOLUTIONARY REACTOR'
>Investment recommendation number two is even more interesting. The Pebble
>Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR) is a South African development based on German
>technology established in the 60's, 70's, and 80's, which the Germans dumped
>after the traumas of Chernobyl. It promises to revolutionize the nuclear
>power industry over the next decade with its inherent safety,
>cost-competitive small unit size, and flexible operation. It has perfect
>application to commercial-scale production of hydrogen - which Bush is
>pushing for - plus desalination for areas short of potable water, and normal
>electrical generation in lieu of oil, gas and coal. In terms of cost, ease
>of operation and safety, it is 5 years ahead of any other nuclear designs
>currently on the drawing boards. It is genuine fourth generation technology
>but its biggest selling point is its inherent safety. Those who understand
>nuclear plants describe it as follows:
>
>"It is a reactor whose safety is a matter of physics, not operator skill or
>reinforced concrete."
>
>The first prototype is due for completion by end 2008. If successful, from
>2015 onwards, 35% of all new power plants in the world could be PBMRs - not
>nuclear plants, ALL plants.
>
>The South African Government is shortly expected to announce its full
>backing for the continuing development of this exciting project. However,
>if, after the announcement, a multi-billionaire foreign investor with youth
>on his side and a penchant for calculated risk, is prepared to stump up
>$1,2billion, he could take a controlling stake in the Pebble Bed project -
>on condition he undertakes to keep assembly in South Africa. In 10 years
>time he could have an organization valued at many times the size of his
>initial investment. South Africa could be generating $25 billion and more a
>year, from exports. For the foreign investor, it would be like finding
>another NOKIA - 15 years ago, when the company was still in the timber
>business.
>
>In a Financial Times article on August 10, 2004 there appeared the following
>description of the Pebble Bed:
>
>"Looking further ahead, a US-led consortium of 10 nations is planning fourth
>generation reactors that could be deployed after 2015. The six reactor
>concepts being studied by the consortium mark a REVOLUTIONARY change. They
>would operate at high temperatures (500 - 1,000 degrees centigrade) to
>maximize efficiency and minimize the output of radioactive waste. This is
>too hot for a pressurized water circuit, so they would use new coolants such
>as helium, molten lead or molten salt. Conventional uranium fuel rods would
>be replaced with another system such as South Africa's "Pebble Bed"
>technology, in which fuel is encapsulated in spheres the size of billiard
>balls."
>
>If there is anyone out there interested in the amazing potential of this
>project, and capable of handling the financial challenge of $1,2billion,
>please contact the writer.
>
>N.B. Neither of the above two recommendations has merit unless our primary
>analysis of the energy markets is correct. Prospective investors should
>carefully assess our detailed reasons for predicting a massive swing back to
>nuclear. At this point the reader will only have had sight of our six page
>'Summary and Conclusion.'
>
>The full report is over 40 pages long explaining the nuclear and broader
>energy markets as well as giving more detailed valuations of Aflease and the
>Pebble Bed Reactor. We encourage you to access it at Peter George's website
>with a view to becoming a SUBSCRIBER. The address is:
>
>www.investmentindicators.com
>
>
>--__--__--
>
>Message: 2
>From: "Jaro" <jaro-10kbq@sympatico.ca>
>To: "multiple cdn" <cdn-nucl-l@mailman1.cis.mcmaster.ca>
>Date: Wed, 10 Nov 2004 21:36:46 -0500
>Subject: [cdn-nucl-l] new hydro
>
>This is a multi-part message in MIME format.
>
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>In sharp contrast to the wishy-washy information typically given about new
>wind power installations, Hydro Quebec's web-posted documentation on its
>three new medium-size hydro projects currently under construction, provides
>figures on both installed power production capacity (the figure always cited
>for windmills) as well as the expected average total annual energy
>production (the dismal performance rarely given for windmills), and the
>resulting capacity factor (CF) or "Facteur d'utilisation" :
>
>Peribonka :
>http://www.hydroquebec.com/peribonka/projet_travaux/fiche_6.html
>Groupes turbines-alternateurs 3 turbines Francis
>Puissance installée totale 385 MW
>Énergie moyenne annuelle 2,25 TWh
>Facteur d'utilisation 67 %
>
>Toulnustouc :
>http://www.hydroquebec.com/toulnustouc/projet/fiche_9.html
>Groupes turbines-alternateurs  2 Francis
>Puissance installée totale  526 MW
>Énergie moyenne annuelle 2,66 TWh
>Facteur d'utilisation  60 %
>
>Eastmain 1 :
>http://www.hydroquebec.com/eastmain1/fr/batir/fiche_6.html
>Groupes turbines-alternateurs 3 turbines Francis à axe vertical
>Puissance installée totale 480 MW
>Énergie moyenne annuelle 2,7 TWh
>[ CF not given, but calculates as 2.7 TWh / 0.00048TW x 365d x 24h  = 64 % ]
>
>
>....this range of CFs from ~60 % to ~70 % is about typical for large hydro
>dams, and it means that each of the three hydro dams produces, on average,
>some 130MW to 200MW less power than the installed capacity.
>
>These CFs are also better than three times as good as that of windmill farms
>in Quebec's Gaspesie region (CFs from 16% to 18%).
>The 1000 MW of windmill power recently announced with great fanfare by
>Quebec's government will actually only produce, on average (optimistically),
>about 240 MW (i.e. ~2.1 TWh per year).
>
>By contrast, CANDU plants typically operate at CFs in excess of 85 % --
>which opponents nevertheless brand as poor performance...... That's about
>5.2 TWh per year for a little CANDU 6 (like Point Lepreau and Gentilly-2),
>and ~6.7 TWh per year for the larger CANDU 9 (like Darlington and Bruce).
>Some of the newer CANDU 6 models produce closer to 6.1 TWh per year.
>
>The media like to say that the 1000 MW of windmills would produce more power
>than Point Lepreau or Gentilly-2.
>In fact, of course, one would need to build about 2500 MW worth of windmills
>to get the same average energy production rate as those old nuclear plants,
>and nearly 3000 MW worth of new windmills to match a similarly more recent
>CANDU 6 model......
>
>  Jaro
>^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
>
>
>
>
>
>
>---
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>--__--__--
>
>Message: 3
>From: "Jaro" <jaro-10kbq@sympatico.ca>
>To: "multiple cdn" <cdn-nucl-l@mailman1.cis.mcmaster.ca>
>Date: Thu, 11 Nov 2004 07:09:16 -0500
>Subject: [cdn-nucl-l] " Fast work averted propane disaster "
>
>This is a multi-part message in MIME format.
>
>------=_NextPart_000_01A8_01C4C7BD.5B7F1CE0
>Content-Type: text/plain;
>         charset="iso-8859-1"
>Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
>
>http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Artic
>le_Type1&c=Article&cid=1100128211504&call_pageid=970599119419
>Nov. 11, 2004.
>Fast work averted propane disaster
>Explosions could have razed scores of Bowmanville homes
>Firefighters praised for efficiently dealing with emergency
>STAN JOSEY
>STAFF REPORTER
>
>Only the quick action of Clarington firefighters averted a disaster that
>could have levelled scores of homes around a Bowmanville propane storage
>facility Tuesday night, police say.
>
>"There is no doubt in my mind this thing would have blown sky high if they
>hadn't been there and got the job done," Durham police Chief Kevin McAlpine
>told a media briefing yesterday.
>
>Propane gas stored at Caledon Propane's Port Darlington Rd. site could have
>levelled as many as 130 homes and several industrial buildings, he said.
>
>Several investigations are probing what caused the fire and explosions at
>about 8 p.m., which forced hundreds of residents out of their homes and
>closed highways and rail lines.
>
>Provincial propane officials said such explosions are rare in the industry.
>The last one in Ontario occurred in 1961 at a storage depot in Maple.
>
>"The safety record of our industry in Ontario is very good," said David
>Sparling of the Ontario Propane Association. He credited firefighters with
>preventing the explosion of two large tanks by dousing them with water
>within a half-hour of the start of the fire.
>
>Mayor John Mutton said there have been no complaints about safety in the
>four years the industrial propane station has been operating. "The only
>complaints we have had have been about the outside storage in an area that
>is supposed to be prestige industrial," he said.
>
>However, Mutton said he will talk with the owners about possible relocation.
>
>
>McAlpine said the placement of the facility, in an industrial area with Lake
>Ontario on one side and Highway 401 on the other, actually limited the
>extent of damage.
>
>The municipality of Clarington activated its emergency response centre
>shortly after the fire broke out and asked police to evacuate as many as 500
>people from a 1.6-kilometre radius.
>
>The highway was closed and trains stopped on the adjacent rail lines for
>several hours after debris from the exploding gas cylinders rained down
>several hundred metres from the scene.
>
>The last fire was extinguished about 1:30 p.m. yesterday, long after
>residents had been allowed to go home. "The safety of our citizens was our
>utmost concern at all times," said Clarington fire Divisional Chief Bill
>Hesson.
>
>The Ontario Fire Marshal's Office and Durham police are investigating. So
>are the environment ministry, the Technical Standards and Safety
>Association, and the Ontario Propane Association.
>
>
>
>
>
>---
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>
>--__--__--
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>End of cdn-nucl-l Digest