[cdn-nucl-l] 52nd edition of the BP Statistical Review of World Energy

["Adam McLean" <adam.mclean@utoronto.ca>]

Posted on the British Petroleum (BP) email news list on June 10, 2003 and
at:
http://www.bp.com/centres/press/p_r_detail.asp?id=992&PC=0f5b19017de00
Not hard to find the fossil fuel bias but a wonderful resource of data
anyhow.
Good favorite to keep handy for all figures on world energy:
www.bp.com/centres/energy

Adam

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World Oil Supply More Diverse; Non-Opec Production Increasing
10th June 2003

World oil supply is becoming more diverse and world oil production capacity
comfortably exceeds world oil demand, said BP chief economist Peter Davies
today. 

"As a result, producers were able to meet the needs of oil consumers during
the Iraq war and during unplanned supply disruptions in Venezuela and
Nigeria. Consuming nations were not required to tap their emergency
reserves. This is good news for those concerned about energy security, but
it should not lead to complacency," Davies said at the launching of the BP
Statistical Review of World Energy 2003. 

OPEC, while using spare capacity of almost 4 million barrels a day to keep
the market supplied during the war, cut its average daily output by 1.87
million barrels a day in response to weak global oil demand and a 1.45
million barrel-a-day increase in non-OPEC production. OPEC production has
declined in three of the last four years. 

"The story is one of supply momentum that looks set to continue," Davies
said. "Russian oil production is up 25 per cent in three years and Russia
has been joined by a new group of oil producing basins, across several
continents and regions, that have begun to grow rapidly." 

Production from Russia, the Caspian, the deepwater Atlantic Basin and Canada
is up 3.3 million barrels a day (26.5 per cent) in three years and has the
potential to increase another 5 million barrels a day by 2007. 

China accounted for 68.5 per cent of the increase in global primary energy
consumption in 2002 and has become a major energy consumer and importer.
Consumption of coal, which accounts for 66 per cent of Chinese energy use,
grew a massive 27.9 per cent. Oil consumption increased 5.8 per cent or
332,000 barrels a day, accounting for all of the world's oil consumption
growth in 2002. China replaced Japan as the world's second largest oil
consumer. 

Natural gas is the world's preferred non-transport fuel. Outside the Former
Soviet Union (FSU) gas consumption has grown 3.4 per cent a year over the
past decade and its share of total energy consumption is now roughly equal
to coal at 24 per cent.

US gas consumption grew 3.9 per cent in 2002 as North American gas
production fell 1.8 per cent. Imported LNG is filling part of the gap.
Producers are now considering options for delivering new sources of pipeline
gas and LNG to this growing gas market. 

Commercial (non-hydro) renewable energies are growing rapidly, but their
contribution to total world electricity generation remains small (1.7 per
cent in 2000 versus 1 per cent in 1990). 

Oil - Brent oil prices averaged $25.19 a barrel in 2002, up slightly on the
2001 average price of $24.77 and well above the post-1986 annual average of
$19.40. Prices during 2002 ranged from a low of around $18 per barrel in
mid-January to peak just before the end of the year at $32. 

Global oil consumption was broadly flat, increasing 290,000 barrels a day
from 75.5 to 75.7 million barrels a day. All of the increase is attributable
to China where oil consumption increased 5.8 per cent or 332,000 barrels a
day. 

Global oil production declined 415,000 barrels a day, or 0.7 per cent, from
74.4 million to 73.9 million barrels a day. OPEC daily oil production fell
to 28.2 million barrels a day, a drop of 1.87 million barrels a day (6.4 per
cent). The steep fall resulted from a number of unplanned disruptions and
because some OPEC producers, primarily Saudi Arabia, curtailed production in
response to weak demand and to a significant 1.45 million barrel per day
increase in non-OPEC oil output. Large daily production increases occurred
in Russia (640,000 barrels), Kazakhstan (150,000 barrels), Canada (170,000
barrels), Angola (160,000 barrels) and Brazil (160,000 barrels). 

Gas - World consumption of natural gas increased in 2002 by a relatively
strong 2.8 per cent on the strength of a 3.9 per cent increase in US
consumption and a 7 per cent increase in non-OECD Asia Pacific consumption.
Growth in natural gas consumption outpaced growth in world primary energy
and its share of total energy consumption is now roughly equal to coal at 24
per cent. 

Global natural gas production increased 1.4 per cent, from 2,493 billion
cubic metres to 2,527 billion cubic metres. North America was the only
region to experience a production decline, falling 1.8 per cent from 779 to
766 billion cubic metres. A price-driven drop in drilling activity explains
some of the production decrease, but the maturity of US and Canadian gas
producing basins was also a factor. 

Coal, nuclear and hydroelectric - Coal was the fastest growing fuel in 2002
with coal consumption increasing 6.9 per cent in 2002 on the strength of an
extraordinary reported increase in China of 27.9 per cent. Excluding China,
world consumption increased just 0.6 per cent. 

Consumption of nuclear power increased 1.5 per cent, with most of the
increase coming in Asia. World consumption of hydroelectric power increased
1.3 per cent from 2001 but was still less than in 2000. Nuclear and
hydroelectric power each account for about 6 per cent of total world energy
consumption. 

Note to Editors: 

This is the 52nd edition of the BP Statistical Review of World Energy. 

The BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2003 is published on the internet
at www.bp.com/centres/energy where data can be viewed and downloaded. 

Press copies of the Review are available from the BP press office (tel: 44
(0)20 7496 4076).