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[cdn-nucl-l] Re: detection limits for underground weapons tests



Ed:

(a)  According to one calculation, cavity sizes for decoupling are 33,500 cubic meters for a 1-kt explosion, 168,000 cu.m. for 5 kt, etc (<http://geology.er.usgs.gov/eespteam/pdf/USGSOFR0128.pdf>).  Disposing of that much earth without leaving tracks in the sand or otherwise running the risk of detection (by satellite, if nothing else) would be a challenge almost anywhere, and especially in Iraq.

(b)  I believe that no developer of A-bombs could count on reliably achieving a yield as low as 1 kt, or even 5, on the first try, even with a simple, gun-barrel uranium device.

        Cheers,

                George Stanford

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At 01:13 AM 2/25/2003 -0500, Edward Oleen wrote:
What I gather from all the replys (half a dozen by
now) is that IF Saddam and his Merry Men tested a
small device (of a few tons) in a large cavity we
might detect it.