[cdn-nucl-l] Re: detection limits for underground weapons tests

["Edward Oleen" <eoleen@earthlink.net>]

Thanks a lot, folks.

What I gather from all the replys (half a dozen by
now) is that IF Saddam and his Merry Men tested a
small device (of a few tons) in a large cavity we
might detect it.  If he had the patience to wait
for a large earthquake in the region - like
another quake in Turkey or Iran, for instance -
(come to think of it, that pretty much brackets
the region, doesn't it...) - THEN his
few-ton-yield device - a
"proof-of-principle-and-engineering" device -
could, quite possibly, go unnoticed - being
regarded as just another after-shock.  This is
especially likely if he takes care not to allow
any escape of fission products.  I think enough
about the Plowshare series has been made public
that he shouldn't have any trouble in figuring out
what to do.

And IF his test was run just after something
MAJOR, like the anticipated rupture under or near
Ankara, with a subsequent large loss of life
(which would sort of take our mind(s) off of
looking for a underground test), and IF he managed
to avoid radiation release, and IF he didn't get a
"run-away", which would jack his test up into the
easily-detectable range....  THEN the first thing
we might know about his new toy is when he
utilizes his now-proven device to get rid of some
pesky neighbors.

I've got three IF's in the previous sentence.  I
don't think any of them are too unlikely to be
achieved.  Assume 90% probability of his getting
away with any one of them: that means 72%
probability of getting away with all three.  I
really don't want to hang my hat on one chance in
four of catching him.

Of course, if my third IF fails, and he shoots for
50 tons but achieves 500 or 5000... and we thus
catch him at it... well, so what? he now knows
that his design WORKS, and all he has to do is
build more, if he hasn't already, and fit one onto
a SCUD, and declare it and leave us to guess the
target... Remember just how successful our Desert
Storm "scud-hunts" were? I sure do.  We took out
some milk trucks thinking they were
scud-transporters and/or fuelers, as I recall.
His Western Desert region is real empty, and we
have never properly searched it on the ground,
remember? I'm pretty sure I could lug a smallish
weapon around on the back of a camel to take it to
the place I've stashed some scuds, if I didn't
want to drive a truck there.

Anybody catch Dale Bumpers on Charlie Rose
tonight? (Mon - Feb 25) This guy is a SENATOR?