RE: [cdn-nucl-l] Nuclear watchdog okays quick restart of Bruce reactors

["Patrick Reid" <PReid@candesco.com>]

Title: RE: [cdn-nucl-l] Nuclear watchdog okays quick restart of Bruce reactors

Wow - $8-$11 is similar to $10-$17? It's about a 40% difference.

 

Try selling milk with that sort of cost differential.

 

Besides, you are comparing a projected-to-pessimistic cost range against an optimistic-to-projected range.

Patrick Reid

-----Original Message-----
From: cdn-nucl-l-admin@informer2.cis.McMaster.CA [mailto:cdn-nucl-l-admin@informer2.cis.McMaster.CA]On Behalf Of Brown, Morgan
Sent: January 8, 2003 9:04 AM
To: cdn-nucl-l (E-mail)
Subject: RE: [cdn-nucl-l] Nuclear watchdog okays quick restart of Bruce reactors

Comparing the Bruce A and Pickering A restart costs:

The Bruce reactor restart is for two reactors (1500 MW) running for a few years before major refurbishment is required (I read about 5 yrs operation, somewhere, but where?).  TransCanada Pipelines, who just bought a share of Bruce Power, have a pdf on their website that shows a prediction of capacity factors of 82 and 83% from the two restarted Bruce A units, during 2004 and 2005, respectively.

In comparison, Pickering A station is being extensively refurbished (like new, almost?).  I read (again, somewhere) that OPG intends to operate them for "at least 10 years".  Thus we have 1500 MW * 5 yrs * 80% (assumed) = 6000 MW-yrs (maximum) for $400 million for Bruce, versus 4*540*10* 80% (assumed) = 17300 MW-yrs (minimum) for $2500 million. 

Sensitivity:
Assume Bruce A reactors manage only 70% avg capacity for 4 years: 4200 MW-yrs
Assume Pickering A reactors last 15 yrs (the pressure tubes are relatively young) and average 85% capacity: 27500 MW-yrs

Thus the Bruce A reactors may pay between $70,000 and $100,000 per MW-yr for refurbishment ($8 to $11 / Mwh)
The Pickering A reactors may pay between $90,000 and $150,000 per MW-yr for refurbishment ($10 to $17/MWh)

This crude analysis (ignoring the cost of capital, which is low right now) shows that the numbers are sensitive to a couple of factors, but indicates that the two refurbs are similar in cost.  Note that Ontario's electricity has been selling (wholesale) for an average of $55.90/MWh during the May 12 2002 - Dec 31 2002 period.

- Morgan

-----Original Message-----
From: Adam McLean [mailto:adam.mclean@utoronto.ca]
Sent: Wednesday, January 08, 2003 12:14 AM
To: cdn-nucl-l@informer2.cis.McMaster.CA
Subject: [cdn-nucl-l] Nuclear watchdog okays quick restart of Bruce
reactors

Posted in the Toronto Star on January 7, 2003 and at:
http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Artic
le_Type1&c=Article&cid=1035776355397&call_pageid=968332188774&col=9683501164
67
The comparison at the bottom really needs some further details... That's
like saying 'my '71 - insert favorite vintage car model here - needed $2,500
worth of repairs and my '79 needs $400 worth'...

Adam

-------------------

Nuclear watchdog okays quick restart of Bruce reactors
First unit set to be fired up by April Summer energy crunch forecast

PETER CALAMAI
SCIENCE REPORTER

<SNIP>
Hawthorne said the nuclear commission was now satisfied sound financial
guarantees are in place until the sale closes on Feb. 14 and would be
replaced by new guarantees then. He said restarting the two Bruce reactors
will cost the private power company about $400 million. Publicly owned
Ontario Power Generation, the successor to Ontario Hydro, is now projecting
a final $2.5 billion price tag for refurbishing four reactors at the
Pickering A power station.
<SNIP>