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Re: [cdn-nucl-l] How Bad Would A Dirty Blast Be? Here's What The Experts Say



Weapon of Terror – NOT

 

By Gordon Prather

 

According to Attorney General Ashcroft, Jose Padilla -- al Qaeda 'jihadist' and Illinois reform school grad -- learned how to construct a radiological dispersal device (RDD) by surfing the Internet.

 

Incredible. Much of the stuff that Google dredges up on any subject is either wrong or outdated. How would Padilla know what to cull? Who to believe? For example, the New York Times has such an anti-nuclear bias that you dare not take as gospel truth anything you read there about RDDs.

 

What might Padilla have 'learned' about RDDs by surfing the Internet?

 

Well, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Iraqis actually constructed and tested three prototype 3000-lb RDD bombs. Much of that weight was for shielding bomb-makers, bomb-testers and bomb-droppers from radiation, even though each bomb only contained about two Curies of radiological materials.

 

[By way of comparison, a radioactive Cobalt-60 source used for cancer treatment is typically several hundred Curies. A typical nuclear reactor fuel assembly -- even after a ten-year under-water cool-off period -- is still tens of thousands of Curies strong.]

 

The Iraqis detonated one their RDDs on the ground, and dropped the other two from aircraft.

 

The result?

 

Three radioactive holes in the ground.

 

Very little of the radiological material was dispersed outside the hole. Certainly not enough to incapacitate troops. As for terror? The radiological material -- inside and outside the crater -- can't be seen, felt or heard. It won't kill you. Won't even make you sick. So, in 1988, the Iraqis gave up on the development of RDDs for battlefield use.

 

The war hawks claim that Saddam has continued to work on RDDs and intends to supply them to terrorists. To do that, Saddam would have to whip up a fresh batch of radiological materials. But, wait a minute. He can't. The reactors he used to make his first batch have all been destroyed and cannot be rebuilt.

 

Rats.

 

But how about the rave reviews given RDDs on websites maintained by foes of nuclear power? They claim that if reactor 'spent' fuel is reprocessed, terrorists can steal the concentrated highly radioactive fission products -- or the weakly radioactive Plutonium itself -- to make RDDs.

 

Stealing spent-fuel -- reprocessed or unprocessed -- is a good way to commit suicide. Even if the terrorist stayed one meter away from an unshielded spent fuel assembly, he would receive a lethal dose of gamma rays in less than three minutes. Of course, he wouldn't die instantly. Might take a day or two. Not long enough to make and deliver a RDD, however.

 

Double Rats.

 

Well, how about using Plutonium? Plutonium carefully dispersed can kill humans when ingested, but relatively high doses are required. Dogs have been forced to ingest the human equivalent of about 100 milligrams of Plutonium. Result? The dogs die from pulmonary edema within 10 days. That's bad, but ingestion of that much cyanide would kill you within 10 seconds.

 

Human inhalation of about 20 milligrams might result in death within a month. According to W. G. Sutcliffe et al at Lawrence Livermore National Lab, in order to ingest that much, a person would have to breathe air containing 20 milligrams per cubic meter of Plutonium particles of exactly the right size for at least an hour.

 

If a terrorist explosively dispersed a kilogram of Plutonium -- which is a lot of Plutonium -- then the volume of air containing 20 milligrams per cubic meter would only be 66-ft on a side. Of course, if the kilogram of Plutonium was dispersed outside or in a mall, then the Plutonium particles wouldn't remain confined to that cube of air. Air currents would further disperse the particles.

 

It's one thing to make dogs in cages acutely ill, but quite another to kill -- or even terrorize -- thousands of mall-rats with a RDD. If you don't tell them they've been exposed to a RDD, they won't know they're supposed to be terrorized. If you do tell them, they probably won't believe you. Contrary to what the New York Times and the anti-nuclear websites proclaim, a RDD is a non-starter as a weapon of terror.

 

But don't stop worrying. Deputy Secretary of Defense Wolfowitz assures us that 'enemy combatant' Padilla was also considering other forms of terrorist activity.

 

Like what? Well, maybe dispersing cyanide. Padilla returned to this country last month about the same time banditos stole 10 tons of sodium cyanide down Mexico way. They haven't recovered all of it yet, have they? Or caught the banditos who did it?

 ************************************************************************

 The Dirty Secret of 'Dirty Bombs'

 

By KHIDHIR HAMZA

The Wall Street Journal,  June 12, 2002

 

The arrest of a "dirty bomb" suspect in Chicago has focused attention once again on al Qaeda. But it would be a mistake to ignore possible state links, especially with Saddam Hussein.

 

During Iraq's long war with Iran it became clear that terrorizing the Iranian troops by using chemical weapons was much more effective than all the artillery and aerial bombardment that we could muster. Newly transferred to the Military Industrialization Corp. headed by Lt. Gen. Hussein Kamel, Saddam's son-in-law, I discovered that a team from the Atomic Energy Commission was already working on radiation weapons on the theory that they could achieve the same effect. It was 1987 and Iran's troops were entrenched in Iraq's only seaport, Fao. No amount of bombardment could dislodge them. The trick was to cut off their supply lines by contaminating the border region with Iran.

 

Recognizing that this was wartime, and thousands were dying in battles daily, I could not immediately dismiss the idea. Not having a powerful enough reactor, the Atomic Energy team resorted to using reactor materials that had already been irradiated, such as the Zirconium in the reactor channels. They could not use the spent reactor fuel since it was checked regularly by the international inspectors. But a test was made in a desert region after enough radioactive material was assembled. As expected, the radioactive materials dispersed too fast and the lethal zone was almost nonexistent outside the blast area. Within a few days there was no more than background radiation outside a very small area. Another test gave the same results and the project was dropped.

 

But it was recognized at the time that while a dirty bomb is not an effective weapon of war, it remains an effective weapon of terror. A contaminated building is a different story than an explosion in the desert sands. Sure enough, I started hearing reports that Iraqi intelligence was inviting some of our nuclear chemists to inquire about how much is a lethal dose and what are the best sources of radiation. They soon realized that the best way to kill someone with radiation was not to spread it widely over a big area; a person could wander through a radiated area for years without noticeable effects. But if someone inhales radioactive materials such as plutonium dust even in tiny quantities, he will most probably be doomed to disease and death. Thus it's much more effective to release radioactive materials, not in the desert, but in a confined environment such as a

building where it's more likely to poison people.

 

Too busy at the time pursuing the nuclear weapons option, Atomic Energy personnel were stopped from meeting intelligence experts. However, I am sure the intelligence agency pursued the subject more diligently by creating its own research team. Thus I was not surprised at the recent news that a defector from the Mukhabarat, Iraq's intelligence organization, was part of a team buying Russian radioactive material routed through an African country. Nuclear materials were handled in a very cavalier fashion in Iraq. Radioactive materials were carried in personal cars without much protection most of the time. Neutron sources for oil well logging (a method of studying the composition of potential bore holes) were dispersed without much training, leading to some accidents that resulted in large contaminated areas.

 

My guess is that if the U.S. nuclear industry is missing some materials, the story is much worse in countries like Iraq, Iran, Libya, Pakistan and the former Soviet republics. This creates an environment in which countries can claim lack of discipline of their workers as a cover for many missing radiation sources. The only serious controls over the smuggling of radioactive materials out of Russia now are the many sting operations by the Russian intelligence services rather than the actual control over the materials themselves. However, such operations are much less in evidence in the other former Soviet republics. Thus, according to one Russian expert, there are more sellers than buyers of nuclear materials in these countries.

 

This environment is ideal for countries like Iraq to train and support a terrorist operation using radiation weapons with complete deniability. If anthrax spores were used to terrorize the U.S., plutonium particles are more effective. No high technology is needed to create plutonium dust and once tiny quantities of plutonium are lodged in the lungs, there is no known cure. Most probably the victim will not even know that he is afflicted till it is too late. There will be no measurable radiation emanating from his body since the emitted radiation from plutonium is short-range. His lung tissues will absorb the radiation, blocking it from being detected by outside detectors. Thus, unlike anthrax, detection is much harder. And plutonium is much more available in spent reactor fuel. Restricting the lookout for this source of terrorism to al Qaeda is taking the easy way out. No matter how much their caves and former dwellings were searched, all that was found were some primitive documents about nuclear radiation. The real expertise -- and the real stockpiles of nuclear material -- remain in countries like Iraq and Iran. With Afghanistan removed as a safe haven, terrorist training grounds and sources of expertise have to come from these countries. It is time to face the real problem and deal with it.

 

Mr. Hamza, former director of Iraq's  nuclear program, is president of the Council on Middle Eastern Affairs.

 

===============================================================

 

Dirty Bomb --- Problems for Terrorists

 

By S. Fred Singer

Letter to Editor, Wash Times (published on June 13, 2002)

 

With all the current concern about “dirty bombs,” here are a few things that should be kept in mind, based on simple calculations:

 

First, it’s the explosion that kills not the radioactivity.  Although prolonged exposure can make you sick, you may not want to stick around long enough for that to happen.

 

Second, assembling the radioactive material is almost sure to kill any terrorist.  After all, a square mile of contamination needs to be compressed into less than a few cubic feet.  That’s a several million-fold concentration.  And the stuff would get so hot; it would melt most containers.

 

There are ways to get around such technical difficulties, but they are not easy.  Then again, terrorists can spread radioactivity more slowly – without using a bomb to disperse it – and achieve almost the same psychological effects. 

************************************************************************

----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, June 29, 2002 2:36 PM
Subject: Re: [cdn-nucl-l] How Bad Would A Dirty Blast Be? Here's What The Experts Say


Two footnotes to the generally well-balanced Washington Post article:

(a)  I believe the expected number of cancer deaths in those 86,572 people
at Hiroshima would be something like 26,000.  If so, the claimed excess of
335 translates to an increased risk of 1.3 percent.  Is the "expected"
number known to within 1.3 percent?  Or am I correct in thinking that the
335 number has no statistical insignificance?

(b)  The article should have pointed out that potassium iodide pills would
be completely useless in countering the effects of any dirty bomb that a
terrorist could put together.  The pills only protect against I-131, of
which there would be none -- the radioactive material in the bomb would
almost certainly have been out of any reactor for many times the 8-day
half-life of I-131.

George Stanford

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

At 02:30 PM 6/28/2002 -0600, Chris Davey wrote:
For interest!
 > Posted in the Washington Post on June 13, 2002 and at:
 > http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A41297-2002Jun12.html
 > Very interesting figure - for the aftermath of Hiroshima and Nagasaki
 > bombs:
 > "...of those survivors since 1950 show that of 86,572 people exposed to
 > levels of radiation thousands of times greater than a dirty bomb could
 > produce, cancer deaths exceeded the expected numbers for that population
 > by 335".
 >
 > Adam
 >
 > -----------------
 >
 > How Bad Would A Dirty Blast Be? Here's What The Experts Say.
 >
 > By Don Oldenburg
 > Washington Post Staff Writer
 > Thursday, June 13, 2002; Page C01
 >
 > Another day, another "credible" terrorist threat. The disaster scenario
 > du jour is now the so-called dirty bomb, so called because this is a
 > conventional bomb that plays dirty. Experts say a dirty bomb could range
 > in size from a small "suitcase" device to a truck bomb, and maybe
 > larger. Its explosive may be as ordinary as dynamite, but it's packaged
 > with radioactive material that, detonated, is scattered in fragments and
 > airborne dust -- or "dirt." Hence the name.
 >
 > You have probably heard public officials and terrorist experts say a
 > dirty bomb's real threat is psychological. And that it is a weapon of
 > terror, fear, panic and disruption rather than one of mass destruction.
 > But what else does the public need to know about dirty bombs? How bad
 > are they, really? Here's the dirt:
 >
 > What could happen if a dirty bomb went off in downtown Washington?
 >
 > Experts envision scenarios that could be on the scale of Timothy
 > McVeigh's 1995 truck bombing in Oklahoma City, which killed 168 people
 > -- with the added dimension of radiation contamination. But it could be
 > much less if it involved a small device, such as one set off by a
 > backpack bomber.
 >
 > "But even a big one would do much less damage than Hurricane Andrew did
 > in Florida," says Randy Larsen, director of the ANSER Institute for
 > Homeland Security, a nonprofit research organization in Alexandria.
 >
 > Almost all deaths and serious injuries would be confined to the
 > immediate vicinity of the explosion. The downtown area would shake from
 > the blast. Anyone nearby would know a bomb had exploded but would have
 > no clue it was a dirty bomb -- you can't smell, taste, feel or see
 > radiation -- until authorities announce they have detected it.
 >
 > How widespread the damage?
 >
 > In March, the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International
 > Studies simulated what would happen if terrorists detonated a
 > 4,000-pound dirty bomb in a school bus parked outside the National Air
 > and Space Museum. In the simulation, the museum ended up almost
 > destroyed and nearby buildings damaged. An estimated 10,000 people were
 > in the immediate vicinity; how many would have died isn't known, but the
 > acute threat was confined to a radius of a few city blocks.
 >
 > Although in the simulation, prevailing winds carried contamination into
 > southern Pennsylvania, the amounts were very small because radiation
 > dissipates quickly.
 >
 > The highest contamination would occur in the blocks surrounding the
 > blast -- or about 10 percent of the District, says Philip Anderson,
 > senior fellow for homeland security initiatives at CSIS, who specializes
 > in anti-terrorism strategies. People there would get about a
 > 5-rem-per-hour dose of radiation. That's the amount the Environmental
 > Protection Agency says is the maximum safe dose to absorb in one year, a
 > standard that is considered very cautious; even absorbed in hours, the
 > amount is not likely to make you sick.
 >
 > Another 10 percent of the District -- people a half-mile to a mile from
 > the blast -- would be in contaminated areas, but not seriously
 > contaminated. The dose would be so small, says Anderson, that it would
 > probably take days or weeks to exceed the EPA maximum yearly safe dose.
 > "The key point," he says, "is that nobody is going to become sick or die
 > from radiation."
 >
 > John Zielinski, professor of military strategy and operations at the
 > National War College in Washington, estimates that, generally, someone a
 > mile from the blast is likely to walk away unscathed. And "you could be
 > within a couple hundred yards of it, and if you are upwind, you might
 > not have a problem at all," he says. "If they set it off in a street and
 > you are one block over and behind a building, there might be no risk."
 >
 > What casualties?
 >
 > Beyond those inflicted by the blast itself, the number of deaths and
 > injuries is likely to be minimal -- depending on the radioactive
 > material used, the size of the explosive, wind conditions and the
 > effectiveness of the evacuation response.
 >
 > Most experts play down any probability of radiation-related deaths.
 > "Threat to life? Not worried about it other than the explosive device
 > itself," says Larsen. "The main thing is, people should not lose much
 > sleep over this.
 >
 > "Just imagine if Timothy McVeigh had put five pounds of radioactive
 > material and blew that up in Oklahoma. . . . No more people would have
 > probably died than did."
 >
 > Long-term effects of radiation exposure? Most experts say that except
 > for people in the immediate area of the blast who survive, the odds are
 > against anyone absorbing enough radiation to suffer long-term effects,
 > such as radiation poisoning or cancer.
 >
 > And the history of radiation exposure is on our side. In a nuclear
 > disaster second only to Chernobyl that occurred in Brazil in 1987,
 > junkyard workers pried open a metal canister from a cancer clinic.
 > Inside was glowing blue radioactive cesium-137 dust. By the next day,
 > dozens of locals had been exposed. "Several ingested it," says Anderson.
 >
 > Of the 20 seriously exposed victims, "four died. But 100,000 plus people
 > had to be medically evaluated. Most of those -- 47,000 people -- had to
 > take a shower and be monitored down the road."
 >
 > Although the devastation was unimaginable and an estimated 200,000
 > people died from the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki --
 > from the explosion and radiation poisoning in the first year -- the
 > long-term health-related problems for survivors hasn't been as horrific.
 > Charles B. Meinhold, president emeritus of the National Council on
 > Radiation Protection, a nonprofit international clearinghouse for
 > research on radiation safety, says studies of those survivors since 1950
 > show that of 86,572 people exposed to levels of radiation thousands of
 > times greater than a dirty bomb could produce, cancer deaths exceeded
 > the expected numbers for that population by 335.
 >
 > What should I do if I'm in the vicinity of the explosion?
 >
 > The basic rule is to stay inside or get inside, then listen to the radio
 > or television for further information.
 >
 > The amount of radioactive dust that could seep inside or enter a
 > building through its air-filtering system isn't likely to be
 > significant. "If you are inside of a building, your chances are like
 > getting several X-rays' worth of exposure," Zielinski says.
 >
 > If you're outside, determine whether the wind is coming your way. "You
 > don't want to be running down the street," Zelinski says. "Get into a
 > building and reduce the amount of dust that gets on you."
 >
 > Close to the explosion? Covered with residue? Stay put. "If the response
 > is good, they are going to try to decontaminate folks closer in as
 > opposed to those fleeing," says Zielinski. "Even if it takes an hour for
 > authorities to respond, you are going to get better treatment there than
 > going to a hospital."
 >
 > Worst reaction? Racing for mass transit or trying to drive home. Not
 > only could you contaminate your car, but you could also spread radiation
 > to your family. And experts are concerned that people trying to flee the
 > city would jam traffic routes and delay emergency teams from getting to
 > the scene.
 >
 > Experts say what the public needs to remember most about dirty bombs is
 > that if you survive the explosion, the amounts of radiation are most
 > likely so low that a few hours of exposure isn't going to be harmful.
 >
 > "The public health people would be there within three hours or sooner,"
 > says Meinhold. "Let them worry about evacuation, decontamination, etc."
 >
 > How about washing?
 >
 > "Most or a large portion of the decontamination effort is going to
 > involve a soapy shower and a change of clothes," says the CSIS's
 > Anderson, who recommends that if you think you are near a potential
 > terrorist target, it may make sense to keep extra clothes, shoes, soap
 > and shampoo on hand.
 >
 > Says Zielinski: "The first thing [is] to try to get as much off as you
 > can, get the clothes off of you and put them in a trash bag. Then take a
 > shower."
 >
 > Can you drink the water?
 >
 > There may be some contamination of water and food in some areas. "You
 > can drink it, but there are definite issues there," warns Anderson,
 > explaining that although a good rain would help clear contamination, the
 > runoff might affect the groundwater supply.
 >
 > Bottled water might be the safe way to go until authorities have tested
 > drinking water, he says.
 >
 > Would a gas mask help any?
 >
 > Gas masks, experts say, may help in protecting against "particulate
 > matter," since radiation attaches to particles in the air. But when you
 > get much beyond the area of the blast, the dust is going to dissipate
 > quickly anyway. "I'm not not sure it would make a difference," says
 > Anderson.
 >
 > Should we stock up on potassium iodide?
 >
 > Again, the solution and the problem may not match well in a dirty-bomb
 > attack, experts say. Potassium iodide protects the thyroid gland from
 > absorbing radioactive isotope of iodine -- a component of radioactive
 > fallout that causes radiation sickness.
 >
 > "I'm not sure we're going to get to the point where we will have many
 > people, if any, suffering from radiation sickness," says Anderson.
 >
 > How likely is an attack?
 >
 > Many experts believe that terrorists already have the crude radioactive
 > materials needed and that a dirty bomb attack is one of the more likely
 > terrorist scenarios -- some even say "inevitable." But Anderson cautions
 > that "it's a simple plan that is still reasonably difficult and
 > complicated to coordinate."
 >
 > But the biggest problem in making a dirty bomb is that even if you find
 > all the parts, assembling them can kill you. True, some terrorists are
 > already suicidal. Still, "first you've got to find it, then you've got
 > to carry it around," says Zielinski. "By the time I get it, move it to a
 > site that is secure and grind it, I've probably already lost several
 > people."
 >
 > To make and transport a dirty bomb safely would require a lead container
 > or shielding that makes it nearly impossible to move. Handling the
 > material can cause burns on the hands and body, even through a backpack.
 > And making a bomb without a shield means almost certain death from the
 > concentrated radiation levels of a radioactive rod or "clump."
 >
 > What do we have to fear?
 >
 > Experts say the answer is fear itself. Dirty bombs can be as devastating
 > as any conventional bomb. People will die in a dirty-bomb attack. But
 > they believe very few people will die or get sick from its radiation.
 > And the radiation is the terrorist wild card for causing panic and
 > psychological trauma.
 >
 > Experts are concerned that public panic is the biggest risk. "It stems
 > from our society's inherent fear of radiation," says Anderson,
 > explaining that he's not discounting the tremendous social and economic
 > implications of a contaminated area in an urban center.
 >
 > The blast area, he says, could be off-limits for several months during
 > intense cleanup efforts, and that could disrupt the local economy.
 >
 > Still, "a lot of this stuff, you just take a big fire hose out and you
 > wash it down," says Larsen. "It's a heavy metal, so it goes to the
 > bottom of the river. It shouldn't be too much problem. So then we have
 > low levels of radiation. That's not as bad as smoking cigarettes. I'd
 > rather be a half-mile from a dirty bomb site than smoke cigarettes."
 >
 > C 2002 The Washington Post Company
 >
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--
Provincial RSO / LSO / U-VSO
Alberta Cancer Board, Room 4027, 11560 University Ave,
Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, T6G 1Z2. (780) 432-8665 fax 432-8986
email: cdavey@med.phys.ualberta.ca    chris.davey@cancerboard.ab.ca
pager number (780) 917-2043


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